Michigan Votes and Delegate Calculation

If we are going to allow Michigan to be included at all in the popular vote tally or the delegate count, it should follow the best metrics available that show where the election would have ended up had all candidates been on the ballot.  Furthermore I believe that any final results should be penalized by 50% in accordance to the rules prior to the rules change that stripped Michigan of it's delegates.  

Fortunately, the exit polls did, in fact ask this question, and here are the results:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/epolls/#val=MIDEM

Vote if All Candidates Were On Ballot Clinton Dodd Gravel Kucinich Uncommitted        
Clinton (46%)                                          97%     0%     0%    0%       3%        
Edwards (12%)                                      30%     2%     0%    11%        57%        
Kucinich   (2%)                                       0%       0%     0%    0%        0%        
Obama (35%)                                        18%     0%     1%    2%         79%        
Richardson (1%)                                     0%     0%       0%    0%       0%        

If we extrapolate the popular vote from this you get:

593837 Total votes * percentage from exit polling

Clinton:    273165.02
Edwards:    71260.44
Kucinich:   11876.74
Obama:      190027.84
Richardson: 5938.37

This what the popular vote tallies should look like if we are being fair about things.  This is obviously a flawed way of doing things but it is far closer than any of the other solutions afforded thus far.

Furthermore we should consider seating delegates with 50% penalty and proportionally indicative of these exit poll numbers that are much closer to showing the will of the electorate than any other.

I cannot speak to how many delegates these would be except to calculate it based upon the percentages mentioned above (we could probably do a county by county breakdown to find out if the elect ability threshold was met in any places for Edwards to get delegates).

156 Delegates/2  * Percentage of votes in the exit poll:

Clinton:    35.88
Edwards:    9.36
Kucinich:   1.56
Obama:      24.96
Richardson: 0.78

For simplicity sake I have left in the candidates that would not have won delegates because they did not meet the 15% threshold.

Employing this method the result would be:

83137.18  Net votes for Clinton
10.92     Net Delegates for Clinton


Poll
Should we seat delegates based on exit polling?
Yes
No
Pie

Votes: 17
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: Michigan Votes and Delegate Calculation (none / 0)

Well, I generally think replacing elections with polls is a pretty silly notion, but if you could explain this to me it would help a lot...

I don't understand how HRC gets 46% in the exit poll, and 55% in the actual results...and this is somehow a better metric of the will of the voters than the election results certified by the state?


No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.
by hornplayer on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 02:20:35 PM EST

Re: Michigan Votes and Delegate Calculation (none / 0)

basically people voted for Hillary but had their candidate been on the ballot, Hillary would NOT have gotten that vote and their candidate would have.

another reason why supers are not going to use the MI pop vote.

you don't think Obama and Edwards supporters are calling their local supers and saying DON'T YOU DARE.

he only got 55% meaning elected MI officials also have the other 45% to deal with, and some of them ARE up for reelection.


Barack Obama & Hillary Clinton PUYBYA! Party Unity? You Bet Your Ass!
by TruthMatters on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 02:22:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

so my candidate was Gore and (none / 0)

he should get my vote because I said so in a exit poll?
Obama was not on the ticket.
For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!
by TeresaInPa on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 02:26:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: so my candidate was Gore and (none / 0)

pretty sure I said that MI wouldn't count

not that Obama would get votes, and you aren't a MI voter so have a nice day.

I don't even know why this is being debated HRC own surrogates don't agree on counting the MI pop. vote. that says it right there.


Barack Obama & Hillary Clinton PUYBYA! Party Unity? You Bet Your Ass!
by TruthMatters on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 02:28:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: so my candidate was Gore and (none / 0)

Since the candidate can't agree with herself do you really expect those in her campaign to be any clearer?


Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.
by Obama Independent on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 03:22:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Votes and Delegate Calculation (none / 0)

Allocating hard votes and delegates based on exit polling for the MSM? Good Grief! I think not.


"I am standing with Barack Obama to say, `Yes, we can!'" Hillary Clinton 6/7/08
by feliks on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 02:25:36 PM EST

Re: Sorry Charlene - (none / 0)

Obama used it as a blatant ploy for Iowa caucus goers.
It had nothing to do with "honoring" the DNC's rules.

Is Washington state going to "honor" the primary???
Nope, you snooze, you lose.


by johnnygunn on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 02:25:39 PM EST

Re: Sorry Charlene - (none / 0)

Washington is NOT ignoring its primary. It is allocating delegates according to the rules they had already set out before voting began, via caucus.


"I am standing with Barack Obama to say, `Yes, we can!'" Hillary Clinton 6/7/08
by feliks on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 02:30:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Exit Polls aren't accurate (none / 0)

It's hard to take this too seriously because as we've seen throughout this campaign, the exit polls haven't exactly been spot on.  They showed Obama winning NH, and he didn't.  They showed a 3 point spread in PA, it was 10.  Exit polls are not a reasonable way to break up the delegates.


by unabashed dem on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 02:30:07 PM EST

Re: Michigan Votes and Delegate Calculation (none / 0)

I think we should have a gladiator fight to see who wins Michigan and Florida.  Swords, whips, knives, guns, you get the picture.  


by Spanky on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 02:37:57 PM EST

Re: Michigan Votes and Delegate Calculation (none / 0)

Dude, I'm totally down for this.  Then we'd have a nominee, too!


No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.
by hornplayer on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 03:17:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Votes and Delegate Calculation (none / 0)

I would only support this if we can all agree that it should be done to the second decimal place.


by the mollusk on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 02:48:30 PM EST

Re: Michigan Votes and Delegate Calculation (2.00 / 1)

There's no way to accurately predict the percentages...And let us not forget  

"The law changing the primary date in Michigan was passed and enacted by Democrats, while the law changing the primary date in Florida was supported by nearly every single Democratic member of the Florida legislature...and it was endorsed by the Chair of the Florida Democratic Party."

Democratic party members could have stopped this from the beginning, they chose not to....The Democrats of MI and FL should keep in mind they voted these people into office and should oust them at the next election.


Obama supporter who is damn glad Hillary Clinton is a Democrat!!
by hootie4170 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 03:08:14 PM EST

Re: Michigan Votes and Delegate Calculation (none / 0)

In favor of who?  The Republican running against them?


No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.
by hornplayer on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 03:17:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Votes and Delegate Calculation (none / 0)

Primary some of them at least.  Like the idiotic State Senate Minority leader in Florida that made the mocking statement about the DNC, when putting the amendment up to placate the DNC.


by Tantris on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 03:37:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Votes and Delegate Calculation (none / 0)

This tells us nothing useful, because it excludes all the people who didn't bother voting because their candidate wasn't on the ballot.  All this does is give us a split of the uncommitted.  You might just as well use current polling data - it would be just as arbitrary.


by interestedbystander on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 03:23:53 PM EST

Re: Michigan Votes and Delegate Calculation (none / 0)

That isn't a bad idea.  You pay some polling companies to do a big poll.  Do a gigantic sample, and weight it against the population of the state.  It would be some way to allocate delegates.


by Tantris on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 03:36:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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