MyDD :: What's up with the EV vote predictor

What's up with the EV vote predictor

by Why Not, Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:50:52 PM EST

Yesterday we had the too rosy prediction on our friendly EV vote predictor of 355 to 183.

Today, we see this 308 230 split. I wonder what happened.

Electoral vote shows 344 194

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

fivethirtyeight shows 335.5 202.5

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

How is it that here we get this silly swing towards McBush when all of yesterday's polls favored Obama?

How is it that they had it closer (to reality) yesterday than today?

The mind boggles.

Maybe it is time for people here to show some real transparency and EV poll results that explain how the vote predictor is (or in this case isn't) working. Otherwise the graph is at best wishful thinking and at worse a deceptive POS.

That is all,

Thanks

Tags: Electoral Vote Polls (all tags)

Permalink :: 24 Comments :: Post a Comment

Its called (1.00 / 0)

handicap...

Rise / Repeat / But for god's sake don't spin!

by aliveandkickin on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:53:42 PM EST

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

I hope Jerome isn't paying too much for it because it kind of sucks. I guess it is only based on the latest poll and doesn't average recent polls. That ain't good. You also can't tell how much of a lead Obama or McCain has (IL is just as blue as Colorado).

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:55:08 PM EST

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

Based on what latest poll?

Both Florida's and Ohio's last polls show Obama winning.

by Why Not on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

Also IN is going for McBush based on recent polling.

This vote predictor here is CARP.

by Why Not on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:00:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

Rassmussen has Obama behind in OH & FL.

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

Three polls on the same day, 2 show Obama winning them 1 shows McCain. let me see, lets go witht he one that was published later in the day since it is OBVIOUSLY more recent.

What a rediculous way to predict the EVs.

by Why Not on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:03:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

Huh? Ras was taken on the 17th, the other two finished on the 16th and 15th. And who ever said it was an EV predictor anyway? sheesh.

by Todd Beeton on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:16:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

If it isn't a predictor, what is it then?

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:19:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

You know, if you had some sort of transparancy built into this preictor this problem would not exist.

by Why Not on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

most recent polls are the Rasmussen, which show McCain winning both.

by Todd Beeton on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:02:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

for somereason the one on MyDD is giving Ohio to McCain, so unless some polls came out that i don't know about

that seems wrong

Barack Obama & Hillary Clinton PUYBYA! Party Unity? You Bet Your Ass!

by TruthMatters on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:55:57 PM EST

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

Actually yes, despite the earlier SUSA and Q-polls showing Obama ahead, Ras more recently released one showing McCain with a 1 point lead:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohi o_presidential_election

by getling on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:58:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

Check the crosstabs. That poll is all kinds of fucked up.

by Geiiga on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:49:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

still winning; thats all i care about.

"Rankles and Rush Limbaugh, ruining the chaos brand since 2008."

by alyssa chaos on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:59:53 PM EST

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

It follows the whim of the person cherry picking numbers to plug into it.

Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.

by Freespeechzone on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:01:57 PM EST

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

are you suggesting we'd cherry pick polls to make it look worse for Obama? and we'd do that why? can't wait to hear this one.

by Todd Beeton on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:17:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

You could average them like everyone else who does that sort of a map.

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:24:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

It was pretty obvious you did so during the primaries.

Again, the simplest solution to this would be transparency in the methodology.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:23:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

Everyone knows what's gone on here. To your credit, you seem to have switched to reality based thinking lately and have stopped dissing the Democratic nominee.

by Beren on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 01:00:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (2.00 / 1)

Or you could have just asked for the link to Jerome's explanation of the methodology without being rude and paranoid all wrapped into one (although it is a charming combination):

"This Electoral Vote Map is updated constantly to forecast the 2008 Presidential election based on the latest available state polling."

The very latest poll in each state, without weighting or averaging.

There isn't a bias as to the pollster, if you see the poll listed as credible on Pollster.com, or RealClearPolitics.com, it'll be included. But, if the latest poll is tied, then the result remains the same as the previous latest poll.

This is a forecast made by the very latest poll. If you see a mistake, perhaps a poll was missed that is the latest, then point it out, and one of the admins will make the change.

The forecast isn't a prediction of the election, but a simple up-to-the-minute poll temperature of the state polling.

Technically, as the name implies, the map is a "poll watcher" not a "poll predictor."

That is all.

by Todd Beeton on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:12:46 PM EST

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

I'm not implying dishonesty on anyone's part.

It is a kind of useless tool, considering the fact that it doesn't really tell us anything meaningful. Giving, say Zogby, the same weight as SUSA is a bit silly.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:16:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

Thanks.
Boggles the mind how [ara

"If you don't care about everybody, you don't care about anybody." --Ethan Mordden

by prodigal on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:56:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's up with the EV vote predictor (none / 0)

Can you all just shut up. It's a freaking map for Christs sakes. Jerome has explained his methodology several times yet people's head seems to explode when blue turns to red. Relax.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:59:34 PM EST

this one here ... (none / 0)

is designed better I believe, as it averages the latest few polls:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

by silver spring on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 04:23:08 PM EST

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